FY 2024

On the divergent evolution of ENSO after the coastal El Niños in 2017 and 2023

Tan, W., Z.-Z. Hu, M.J. McPhaden, C. Zhu, X. Li, and Y. Liu

Geophys. Res. Lett., 51(9), e2024GL108198, doi: 10.1029/2024GL108198, View open access article online at AGU/Wiley (external link) (2024)

Coastal El Niño is an extreme situation of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with sea surface temperature warming confined in the far-eastern equatorial Pacific. Some coastal El Niños evolve into a basin scale El Niño, and some don't, implying a diversity in ENSO evolutions after a coastal El Niño event. In this study, the coastal El Niños in 2017 and 2023 are selected to examine their subsequent evolution. Both coastal El Niños developed after a La Niña, with the former followed by a La Niña and the latter by a basin-scale El Niño. The cold (warm) subsurface temperatures in 2017 (2023) were key factors leading to the divergent ENSO evolution. Convection over the western tropical Pacific and the atmospheric circulation anomalies across the equatorial Pacific also contributed to the differences. Model predictions suggest that differences in ENSO evolution after a coastal El Niño are associated with differences in ENSO predictability.

Plain Language Summary. Compared with the global impact of basin-scale El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, coastal El Niño impacts are mainly focused along the South American coast. They are less studied, especially, in terms of temporal evolution and longer-term development. Here, we examine the divergent evolution of ENSO conditions in the tropical Pacific after the coastal El Niños in 2017 and 2023. This subsequent divergent evolution of these events was associated with both preceding subsurface ocean heat content levels, convection over the western tropical Pacific, and concurrent atmospheric circulation. Specifically, preceding subsurface ocean cooling combined with low-level easterly wind anomalies led to the growth of La Niña after the coastal El Niño in 2017, while strong preceding subsurface ocean warming led to the growth of El Niño after the coastal El Niño in 2023. These differences in the evolution of tropical Pacific Ocean conditions after a coastal El Niño were associated with different levels of ENSO predictability.