FY 2023

Vulnerability to climate change of managed stocks in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem

McClure, M., M.A. Haltuch, E. Willis-Norton, D.D. Huff, E.L. Hazen, L.G. Crozier, M.G. Jacox, M.W. Nelson, K.S. Andrews, L.A.K. Barnett, A.M. Berger, S. Beyer, J. Bizzarro, D. Boughton, J.M. Cope, M. Carr, H. Dewar, E. Dick, E. Dorval, J. Dunham, V. Gertseva, C. Greene, R.G. Gustafson, O.S. Hamel, C.J. Harvey, M.J. Henderson, C. Jordan, I.C. Kaplan, S.T. Lindley, N.J. Mantua, S.E. Matson, M.H. Monk, P. Moyle, C. Nicol, J. Pohl, R.R. Rykaczewski, J.F. Samhouri, S. Sogard, N. Tolimieri, J. Wallace, C. Wetzel, and S.J. Bograd

Front. Mar. Sci., 10, 1103767, doi: 10.3389/fmars.2023.1103767, View online at Frontiers (external link, open access) (2023)

Introduction: Understanding how abundance, productivity and distribution of individual species may respond to climate change is a critical first step towards anticipating alterations in marine ecosystem structure and function, as well as developing strategies to adapt to the full range of potential changes.

Methods: This study applies the NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) Fisheries Climate Vulnerability Assessment method to 64 federally-managed species in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem to assess their vulnerability to climate change, where vulnerability is a function of a species’ exposure to environmental change and its biological sensitivity to a set of environmental conditions, which includes components of its resiliency and adaptive capacity to respond to these new conditions.

Results: Overall, two-thirds of the species were judged to have Moderate or greater vulnerability to climate change, and only one species was anticipated to have a positive response. Species classified as Highly or Very Highly vulnerable share one or more characteristics including: 1) having complex life histories that utilize a wide range of freshwater and marine habitats; 2) having habitat specialization, particularly for areas that are likely to experience increased hypoxia; 3) having long lifespans and low population growth rates; and/or 4) being of high commercial value combined with impacts from non-climate stressors such as anthropogenic habitat degradation. Species with Low or Moderate vulnerability are either habitat generalists, occupy deep-water habitats or are highly mobile and likely to shift their ranges.

Discussion: As climate-related changes intensify, this work provides key information for both scientists and managers as they address the long-term sustainability of fisheries in the region. This information can inform near-term advice for prioritizing species-level data collection and research on climate impacts, help managers to determine when and where a precautionary approach might be warranted, in harvest or other management decisions, and help identify habitats or life history stages that might be especially effective to protect or restore.