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PMEL Publications Abstract

FY 2005

Application of a sequential regime shift detection method to the Bering Sea ecosystem

Rodionov, S.N., and J.E. Overland

ICES J. Mar. Sci., 62, 328–332, doi: 10.1016/j.icesjms.2005.01.013 (2005)

A common problem of existing methods for regime shift detection is their poor performance at the ends of time-series. Consequently, shifts in environmental and biological indices are usually detected long after their actual appearance. A recently introduced method based on sequential t-test analysis of regime shifts (STARS) treats all incoming data in real time, signals the possibility of a regime shift as soon as possible, then monitors how perception of the magnitude of the shift changes over time. Results of a STARS application to the eastern Bering Sea ecosystem show how the 1989 and 1998 regime shifts manifest themselves in biotic and abiotic indices in comparison with the 1977 shift.

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