CHIDONG ZHANG: Next lightning talk is given by Muyin Wang--on Arctic mid-latitude connections.

MUYIN WANG: OK, I'm giving this presentation on behalf of the Arctic group. That's Jim Overland [INAUDIBLE]. So the Arctic has been warming [INAUDIBLE] global means.

So this amplified response has been often seen as the leading indicator of global warming. Those physical changes such as the rapid decline of sea ice, melting of Greenland ice sheet and thawing of the permafrost, et cetera has profound impact on marine and ecosystems, marine and terrestrial ecosystems and the national security transportation, and economic development in the Arctic and beyond. 

So this is what we're doing in the past five years. We have found multiple assessments, this including contributing contributing to the Arctic Report Card, being [INAUDIBLE] and contributing assets to the IPCC report and also contribute lead AMAP [INAUDIBLE] report. We have done field experiment, conduct Arctic heat experiment in the Chukchi overseas, and make experimental fall freeze-up forecasts. And we can provide support to Alaska Fisheries Science Centers and then we also conduct research on arctic [INAUDIBLE]. I will touch more on that.

So the Arctic sea ice [INAUDIBLE] and so this is 2018 and '19 although it did not set a new record in the summer, but the big news is that a new record in winter. And on top of the ice cover we also see the Arctic sea ice actually become thinner and younger. 

So those two big segment data shows that the red area is multi-year ice. Refresh back to your eyes, and you can see where that goes. So it's kind of almost 70%. So this has profound impact on the Arctic. And the way we see that the latest freeze out in the Chukchi Sea, Beaufort and Bering Seas. 

So what happened in the Arctic, will not stay in the Arctic. What I am showing here is a 500 meter value change of height, and then white pattern is then actually the jet stream. So in the normal years, the jet stream basically around the pole allocate that cold air in the Arctic. 

However there are cases when the jet stream come wavier. And then you would see that the cold air in the Arctic will penetrate to the lower latitude cover the coast side first. And so jet stream variability how fast this arctic impact on mid-latitude weather. 

So here we show you the exact how the case started. In 2017, you see there's cold temperature anomalies over the Northeast America. And at the country law anomaly more than 5 degrees below normal. 

At this loca-- this is co-located with [INAUDIBLE] milibar jet stream, we can see the top, it's located above this cold center. On the other side of the North America the bridge of Alaska has this warm anomalies over there. A counter example is 2017 in which the jet stream you can see shielded by the [INAUDIBLE] is very zonal. As a result, we cannot see any complete anomalies in the North America. 

So the arctic mid-latitude linkage study has been really of debate over the community. The idea was it started since 2012. And so far there more than 100 papers have been published on this topic. With a lot of observational evidence supporting, yet we have contradicting modeling results. 

So we'll continue on this because there are a lot of challenge of this issue, well, two particular reasons that they happen episodically and we do not see persistence. And in what whatever, but as I said earlier, what happened in Arctic actually has profound impact on the national security transportation and ecosystem as a whole. So in the future we will continue what we're doing, and where that's how [INAUDIBLE] in arctic. 

We will do assessment work, and then we'll make forecasts about those. Specifically, work will involve assessments. We have done extensive model assessment work for the [INAUDIBLE].

And Dick just showed some of the model results that [INAUDIBLE]. Those climate models are the only tool we have to make up projections of the future objectively. So what's the best way to use those models is something what we want to address. And so we have found the model assessment industry [INAUDIBLE] model assessment [INAUDIBLE] and I'll have poster to show you tomorrow when we meet again.

[APPLAUSE]