PMEL Publications Abstract
FY 2026
Arctic change and recent severe societal impacts
Overland, J.E.
Meteorology, 5(3), 24, doi: 10.3390/meteorology5030024, View open access article at MDPI (external link) (2026)
Arctic temperatures are rising faster than global temperatures. They show regionality that impacts specific extreme events. The previous five years favor three large societal im-pacts: Canadian wildfires with extensive air pollution, disastrous landfalling storms in Western Alaska with high waves and storm surge, and Arctic/midlatitude weather connections impacting regions with large populations and expanding infrastructure expo-sure. Taken together, such rare extremes form a collective indicator of Arctic change. Rather than a focus on trends, extremes are single occurrences that amplify typical weather events. Temperature maximums and dryness related to stationary geopotential heights in Eurasia and northwestern Canada add persistent forces to co-located wildfires. Recent warm sea temperatures in the western Bering Sea helped fuel two re-energized remnant typhoons on a northeast trajectory toward Alaska. Cold-air outbreaks continue to penetrate south into midlatitude regions ill-prepared to deal with frigid temperatures—such as Florida, Texas, and east Asia. It is important to connect extreme Arctic weather hazards to the magnitude of their societal impact. Impacts are an overlap of weather hazards, societal vulnerability, and exposure.