PMEL Publications Abstract
FY 2026
Wildfires as emerging dominant Arctic and subarctic extremes
Overland, J.E., V. Chandra, and M. Wang
Climate, 14(3), 65, doi: 10.3390/cli14030065, View open access article at MDPI (external link) (2026)
For the last three summers in Canada (2023–2025), and episodically in Siberia over the previous decade and a half, severe consequences from wildfires represent major ecological and societal impacts: the displacement of inhabitants; destruction of buildings, timber and infrastructure; and far-field air pollution. Wildfire occurrence is increasingly supported every summer by persistent surface warming and widespread atmospheric moisture deficits. The two recent major Canadian fire years in 2023 and 2025 show some contrasts: 2023 was dominated by an early June event with preconditioning, whereas 2025 saw repeated single events spanning June to early August, culminating in a significant late-summer event. Events in both years were associated with North Pacific–North American atmospheric blocking regimes. Over the longer term, 2003–2025, normalized June–September wildfire fraction anomalies in the Canadian sector (45–60° N, 150–60° W) show the post-2023 period as having new, clear, record-breaking fire intensities, highlighting wildfires as emerging dominant Arctic–subarctic extremes. Siberia shows an increase after 2010. Although multiple environmental Arctic–subarctic extremes are ongoing—such as sea-ice loss, storms, and glacial ice loss—the impacts from wildfires represent preeminent, growing societal consequences.